The Consumer Price Index (CPI) : is a monthly measure of changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services. It is an index that tracks the price changes of a representative basket of goods and services typically purchased by consumers, including food, energy, housing, clothing, transportation, healthcare, entertainment, and education. Economists use the Consumer Price Index to monitor and measure changes in the prices that consumers face in their daily spending. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the Consumer Price Index by comparing the average cost of a basket of goods in a given month to the average cost of the same basket of goods in the previous month. The percentage change is then multiplied by 100 to obtain the Consumer Price Index number.
Importance of the Consumer Price Index : The Consumer Price Index is important because it measures inflation, which indicates continuous price increases in the economy. The growth of the Consumer Price Index is often referred to as the “inflation rate.” It is used by retailers to predict future price increases, by employers to calculate wages, and by the government to determine cost-of-living adjustments for social security. The Consumer Price Index also provides insights to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, regarding the need to adjust interest rates. If the Consumer Price Index is increasing, it supports the central bank’s data for raising interest rates, which can have effects on the country’s currency.
Calculation and Components of the Consumer Price Index : The Consumer Price Index is calculated based on a basket of goods and services that consumers typically purchase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects price data on thousands of items every month through data collectors who visit or contact retail stores, service establishments, rental establishments, and medical offices across the United States. These data collectors record prices for around 80,000 items, which represent a scientifically selected sample of goods and services that consumers purchase.
The basket of the Consumer Price Index includes items that make up a significant portion of an average consumer’s spending, such as groceries, with greater weight given to these items in the index calculation. It does not include investments like stocks, bonds, real estate, or life insurance, as these are considered savings rather than daily consumption expenses.
Core Consumer Price Index and Inflation : When analyzing the Consumer Price Index, it is essential to consider the “core price” or the Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes the volatile prices of energy and food. This provides a more accurate measure of overall prices. Core Consumer Price Index is often used to gauge core inflation trends. Items like clothing, tobacco, airline tickets, and new cars are among the components that can significantly impact the Consumer Price Index in a given month due to their volatility. Ideally, financial markets expect the Consumer Price Index to increase by only 1-2% annually, as higher increases may signal a warning of rising inflation rates. Core Consumer Price Index is closely monitored to assess core inflation, whether on a monthly basis or in terms of the annual change.
In general, the Consumer Price Index is an accurate measure of inflation and is widely used, playing a crucial role in economic analysis and decision-making processes. Traders pay close attention to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as it has an impact on the movement of currency and metals prices.
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Shady Fouad is a technical analyst at LDN Company
Shady's strategic vision in the currency markets is reinforced by more than fifteen years of trading experience, which enables him to blend economic and technical analyzes with high efficiency, and find the best investment ideas for traders.
