Oil prices saw a notable decline in Tuesday’s session, with Brent falling to $66.12 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery dropped to $63.02, and the more active October contract slipped to $62.24. In other Asian market dealings, Brent retreated to $66.16 and WTI to $62.22. This pullback followed modest gains in the previous session, supported by U.S. remarks suggesting that India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude amounted to direct funding of the war.
U.S. President Donald Trump held a series of intensive meetings in recent days, including talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House alongside senior European leaders. Trump pledged U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine’s security as part of any future peace settlement an announcement welcomed by Zelenskiy as “a major step forward.” At the same time, Trump indicated that Ukraine should abandon hopes of regaining Crimea or joining NATO, a stance more in line with Moscow’s view favoring a comprehensive settlement over a temporary ceasefire. He also confirmed that arrangements were underway for a direct meeting between Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could later evolve into a trilateral summit.
On the ground, Ukraine intensified its military actions against Russian energy infrastructure, with drones striking an oil pumping station in Russia’s Tambov region, leading to a suspension of flows through the Druzhba pipeline. These developments provided partial support to prices by reviving concerns over supply security. Meanwhile, betting market data indicated that the probability of achieving a ceasefire before year-end stood at only 38%, down sharply from a peak of 78% in March, underscoring market skepticism over a near-term political breakthrough.
On the trade front, risks have escalated as the U.S. prepares to impose additional 25% tariffs on India, effective August 27, over its continued imports of Russian crude. Despite White House warnings, Indian refiners, led by Indian Oil Corp, reiterated their intention to maintain purchases as long as they remain economically viable. With U.S.-India trade talks postponed, uncertainty has deepened across the market. Looking ahead, institutions such as TD Securities project that oil prices could trend toward $58 a barrel in Q4 2025 or early 2026, provided signs of political deescalation continue.
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