Oil prices rose by more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, after the OPEC+ group reaffirmed its commitment to keeping production levels unchanged during the first quarter of next year, at a time when supply concerns increased due to geopolitical tensions. Brent crude futures for February climbed to $63.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose to $59.27 per barrel.
The price support came after OPEC+ maintained its freeze on planned production increases, while continuing the voluntary cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day, amid a cautious outlook regarding slowing demand and the risk of oversupply in 2026. The group also agreed on a mechanism to evaluate member states’ maximum production capacities between January and September 2026, paving the way for establishing new baselines in 2027 a step that could spark disputes among members seeking to increase their future quotas.
Meanwhile, traders monitored rising supply risks following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about the potential closure of Venezuelan airspace, amid escalating tensions between both sides and U.S. military operations targeting boats Washington accuses of drug trafficking, in addition to reinforcing American military presence near the country. Venezuela supplies roughly 800,000 barrels per day, most of which is exported to China, making any further escalation a clear threat to supply stability.
Prices also received additional support after a series of attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure that disrupted export operations. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) a key route for transporting Russian and Kazakh crude through the Black Sea announced the suspension of loading operations after a mooring point at the Novorossiysk terminal suffered severe damage due to a naval drone strike. This route is vital, with shipments averaging around 1.48 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, benefiting from the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field, which boosted exports.
With these successive developments, the market faced a combination of cautious production policies and escalating geopolitical risks, reinforcing the upward trend in oil prices as the trading week began.
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