Oil prices fell on Monday, pulling back from some of the strong gains seen at the end of last week, after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, easing immediate concerns over supply disruptions.
January Brent futures dropped 0.7% to $63.97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 0.7% to $59.52 per barrel. Prices had surged more than 2% on Friday after a major Ukrainian attack on the Novorossiysk port and a terminal operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, causing damage and halting exports equal to roughly 2% of global supply. According to media reports, tanker loadings at the port resumed by Sunday, helping alleviate the short term supply crunch.
Despite this, markets remain cautious after Ukrainian forces announced strikes on Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery and the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region, raising fresh concerns about prolonged supply disruptions. Investors are also focused on tightening U.S. sanctions, as Washington introduced new restrictions barring companies from dealing with major Russian oil firms such as Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, forcing buyers to unwind contracts and raising questions about how much oil could remain stranded.
According to ING analysts, the oil market is expected to remain in a substantial surplus through 2026, but at the same time faces escalating supply risks as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. They added that risks are also emerging elsewhere, including Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it passed through the Strait of Hormuz a key chokepoint for global oil flows, with around 20 million barrels per day moving through it.
Recent data also showed that speculators increased their net long positions in Brent by 12,636 contracts last week, bringing the total to 164,867 contracts, reflecting short covering and signaling reluctance among some market participants to take fresh short positions amid uncertainty around sanctions.
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