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Oil Prices And Goldman Sachs Forecasts

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Crude oil prices rose more than one percent in Asian trading on Monday, supported by a decrease in exports from Russia. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea raised concerns about potential oil supply disruptions.

On Sunday, Russia announced that it would deepen its oil export cuts in December by at least 50,000 barrels per day, ahead of the pledged schedule, as the world’s largest oil exporters attempt to support global oil prices. Moscow suspended around two-thirds of the main Urals crude loadings for export from ports due to a storm and planned maintenance on Friday. Shipping companies, including the world’s largest container shipping lines over the weekend, stated that they would avoid the Suez Canal due to intensified Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial route for globally shipped goods by sea, especially crude oil and fuel from the Gulf heading west to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the nearby Sumed pipeline, as well as goods heading east to Asia, including Russian oil.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude concluded the longest series of weekly declines in half a decade with slight gains last week after the Federal Reserve’s meeting raised hopes of an end to interest rate hikes. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for Brent crude prices in 2024 by $10 per barrel to a range of $70 to $90 per barrel. The investment bank now expects Brent to recover to a peak of $85 per barrel in June 2024, with an average of $81 per barrel in 2024/2025, compared to the previous estimate of $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs added that continued supply from non-OPEC sources, led by the United States, is likely to persist in 2024. Analysts anticipate that U.S. crude oil production will reach 11.4 million barrels per day in the last quarter of next year. However, the bank noted that OPEC’s decision to restrain supplies, the recovery in China, storage replenishment in the United States, and the modest recession risks could limit the downside risks to oil prices.

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