Oil prices saw a slight decline as investors awaited developments following U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest warning to Russia, which involved shortening the deadline for ending the war in Ukraine. Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on countries continuing to import Russian oil.
The most actively traded Brent crude futures fell by 17 cents, or 0.24%, to $71.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 11 cents, or 0.14%, to $69.12. The September contract for Brent also declined by 11 cents, settling at $72.40. Both benchmarks had previously closed at their highest levels since June.
Trump stated that he would begin imposing secondary tariffs of 100% on trade partners engaging with Russia if it fails to make progress toward ending the war within 10 to 12 days — a sharp revision from the earlier 50-day deadline.
China and India remain the largest importers of Russian oil, though analysts believe India is more vulnerable to the impact. Observers suggest that both nations should seek alternatives, noting that countries like Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members may fill the gap. However, delays in securing these supplies could push prices higher in the short term.
India is expected to comply with U.S. sanctions, potentially affecting up to 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports. In contrast, China is likely to resist compliance. Experts note that the geopolitical risk premium recently added to oil prices estimated at $4 to $5 per barrel will likely persist unless Russia offers meaningful concessions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has warned China the largest buyer of Russian oil that it could face substantial tariffs if it continues purchasing from Moscow.
Despite these threats, economists do not foresee a major withdrawal of Russian oil from global markets in the near term. They point out that Russia has largely succeeded in bypassing Western sanctions since the start of the war, maintaining the resilience of its export flows despite price caps and regulatory pressure.
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