Oil opened the week with a slight decline, as strong global supply absorbed the impact of the U.S. military raid in Caracas that resulted in the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his transfer to the United States.
Brent crude fell 0.4% to $60.54 a barrel, while U.S. WTI dropped 0.5% to $57.04. Early Asian trading saw brief rebound attempts, followed quickly by renewed selling pressure, with market attention fixed on evaluating political stability in the OPEC member nation and any real implications for exports.
President Trump confirmed that the full U.S. oil embargo on Venezuela remains in place without changes. Although the news revived geopolitical caution, analysts agree that any additional disruption to Venezuelan exports is unlikely to shift prices immediately, given that the global oil market currently holds a comfortable surplus.
Goldman Sachs maintained its 2026 oil price outlook without revisions, noting that future price pressure depends more on the trajectory of U.S. sanctions policy than the headline itself. JP Morgan also echoed that any major shift in Venezuela’s leadership could become a longer term supply factor beyond 2027, rather than an instant pricing driver.
Reports verified that the U.S. operation caused no damage to Venezuelan oil production or refining facilities, keeping the immediate market impact largely psychological, not operational. Meanwhile, RBC Capital pointed out that if full sanctions relief materializes later, Venezuela could return several hundred thousand barrels per day, which may weigh on prices unless matched by strong demand.
Trump also hinted at possible further military moves in Latin America, referencing Colombia and Mexico if drug flow concerns persist, keeping the region under investor review for commodities, capital movement, and currency liquidity.
At the same time, markets are watching Iran’s response after previous U.S. statements regarding protests, adding another layer of geopolitical tension in an OPEC producer. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to keep output unchanged, adding a stabilizing anchor to global supply and limiting any sharp price spikes for now.
Bottom line: Near term oil movement remains range bound with a slight downward bias, guided more by supply balance, liquidity, and sanctions tone than the news cycle alone.
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