Cannot fetch data from server.

J.P. Morgan comment on USD reaction to U.S election

News
By Mostafa Mahmoud
J.P. Morgan comment on USD reaction to U.S election
0 19

J.P. Morgan: “We estimate that FX prices in 60-70% chance of a Trump victory. G10 (The ten major forex currencies) election volumes have rebounded pre-election, hitting new cycle highs in many cases while a Harris victory with Split Congress sees USD weaker.
Positioning to witness USD upside, and a probability for USD shorts in a Harris victory.
Macro Trade Recommendations: (long JPY vs CAD, EUR) (short EUR/USD).
Technicals: EUR/USD rebounds from 2023-2024 trend line support. EUR/GBP attempts to base above longer-term range support.
USD/JPY rally stalls near the 153.505 Jul 61.8% retrace and Aug-Sep pattern objective.

Emerging Markets FX: MW EM FX keeping positions light. Our favourite election hedges are short CNH, PLN and newly CZK in options. Stay long TRY and ILS, which we expect to be resilient.

FX Derivatives: Election premium rebounded to a cycle high. Scandies and Antipodeans lag. Premium roll-off should see 1M vol down by about 1.5vol pts. Trump post-election win trade: topside USD and vol ownership. For Harris: USD skew harvesting in CNH, SEK or NOK, and high-beta G10 USD-puts vs low-beta USD-puts RV.

Stay informed about global markets through our previous analyses. and Now, you can also benefit from LDN company services via the LDN Global Markets trading platform.

Mostafa Mahmoud

Mostafa Mahmoud Technical Analyst at LDN Mostafa has half a decade of experience in the field of financial markets between technical analysis and financial portfolio management, which extends to more than one financial market between stocks, commodities, currencies and the debt markets.

You might also like More from author
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

[email protected]
REACH OUT TO US
Privacy Policy | AML Policy | Terms & Conditions | Security Of Funds | Risk Disclosure
Licensing and Regulation: LDN GLOBAL MARKETS LLC is an officially licensed broker holding an International Brokerage License in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, numbered 1547 LLC. The registered address is Richmond Hill Rd, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, VC0100. Additionally, LDN GLOBAL MARKETS LLC is registered with license number T2023240 on Bonovo Road in Fomboni, Island of Mohéli, Comoros Union.
Licensing and Regulation: LDN GLOBAL MARKETS LLC is a fully licensed broker holding an International Brokerage License in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, numbered 1547 LLC. The registered address is Richmond Hill Rd, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, VC0100.
Other entity within the group: LDNGM FINTECH SERVICES LTD (registration No. HE 432187, registered at Spyrou Kyprianou & Ayias Fylaxeos 182, Kofteros Business Center, Floor 2, Flat 201, 3083) provide content and perform operational management of the business.
Risk Warning : Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading in contracts for the difference carries a high level of risk, as trading on margin can be to your advantage or disadvantage. As a result, CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as you may lose all your invested capital. You should not risk more than you can lose. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved in this trade, and seek independent advice if necessary before entering into such transactions. Please read the risk disclosure statement on this website
LDN GLOBAL MARKETS is committed to the highest standards of the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF). To help the governments first and the financial services industry fight the funding of terrorism and money laundering activities, law requires all financial institutions to obtain, verify, and record information that identifies each person opening an account. Since LDN Global Markets is not under the supervision of ESMA, it is not involved with any acts considered to be offering financial products and solicitation for financial services to the European Union countries and this website is not aimed at residents in the European Union countries.
Restricted Regions : LDN Global Markets does not provide its services to citizens and residents of certain jurisdictions such as United States of America, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, EU countries, Iran, Israel and North Korea.
Copyright ©2015 – 2024 LDN Global Markets all rights reserved.