Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline through the remainder of this year and into 2026 due to increased recession risks and rising supply from the OPEC+ alliance. It is forecasted that the average price of Brent crude will be around $63 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to average $59 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, and drop to $58 and $55 per barrel, respectively, in 2026.
Regarding oil demand, with weak global growth projections due to the escalating trade war, Goldman Sachs predicts that global oil demand will increase by only about 300,000 barrels per day from the end of last year until the end of 2025. The bank has also lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 by 900,000 barrels per day due to the intensification of the trade war between the U.S. and China.
In this context, China recently raised tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% in response to President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, which signals a deepening disruption in global supply chains. Although the market has factored in some future increases in inventories, Goldman Sachs predicts that the market will experience a significant surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, which will continue to negatively pressure oil prices.
The bank further stated that Brent crude prices could fall to around $40 per barrel in 2026, and potentially drop below this level if the world experiences a widespread economic slowdown, or if OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day are fully reversed.
