Articles Archives - LDN Global Markets https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/category/articles Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:59:57 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/cropped-logo-32x32.jpg Articles Archives - LDN Global Markets https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/category/articles 32 32 Expectations that Bank of Japan is not intervening in the markets. https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/expectations-that-bank-of-japan-is-not-intervening-in-the-markets-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/expectations-that-bank-of-japan-is-not-intervening-in-the-markets-2#respond Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:59:09 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28478 Expectations that Bank of Japan is not intervening in the markets.

The depreciation of the yen to less than 150 yen against the dollar has prompted warnings from Japanese officials that the pace of the currency’s decline is “excessive” and “undesirable.” However, the likelihood of a repeat of the intervention madness in buying the yen in 2022 seems unlikely. Tokyo may not intervene at all. Tolerance […]

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Expectations that Bank of Japan is not intervening in the markets.

The depreciation of the yen to less than 150 yen against the dollar has prompted warnings from Japanese officials that the pace of the currency’s decline is “excessive” and “undesirable.” However, the likelihood of a repeat of the intervention madness in buying the yen in 2022 seems unlikely. Tokyo may not intervene at all. Tolerance for the current weaker exchange rate appears higher than before, and the decrease in the volatility of the yen suggests a comfortable foreign exchange market, with yield differentials between the United States and Japan likely to narrow rather than widen from here.

In Japan, inflation peaked and is now declining, with significant easing of pressure on pipeline prices. The economy has entered a recession, although trade conditions improved in the country from 2022 onward. Additionally, the Bank of Japan seems to be on track to end negative interest rates soon, making a “natural” shift in the yen’s value more evident.

Globally, while there is increasing uncertainty about the timing and extent of interest rate movements by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, they are expected to be less drastic. None of this indicates an urgent need for Japanese policymakers to enter the market and spend billions of dollars to prevent the yen from reaching new historical levels, such as 152 yen to the dollar. They may want to prevent the yen from sliding further, as more damaging sales could threaten the performance of Japanese financial markets. The yen has already depreciated significantly by 6% against the dollar this year.

However, a repeat of what happened in September and October 2022, when Japanese authorities bought the yen in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998, in record quantities, is a distant possibility. At that time, the annual consumer inflation rate was above 3% and still rising, with producer price inflation at 10%. Although authorities had been trying to escape deflation for years, the exchange rate/import prices spiral was not the desired alternative.

Inflation is approaching the Bank of Japan’s 2% target and is slowing down, with producer price inflation almost disappearing. Analysts at Morgan Stanley suggest that Japanese trade conditions are no longer as bad as they were 16 months ago, and import costs are not close to rising.

This comes despite surprising news indicating that the economy has slipped into recession, meaning Japan is no longer the world’s third-largest economy. Do policymakers want to raise the exchange rate, providing a path for the export-dependent economy to exit the recession, boost corporate profits, and increase the likelihood of higher desired wage settlements?

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Oil Hovers Near Three-Week High https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/oil-hovers-near-three-week-high-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/oil-hovers-near-three-week-high-2#respond Tue, 20 Feb 2024 13:31:27 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28407 Oil Hovers Near Three-Week High

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, nearing their highest levels in three weeks due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a recovery in Chinese demand. Crude oil rose to $78.40 per barrel in the morning. The Houthi rebels continued their attacks on maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where […]

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Oil Hovers Near Three-Week High

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, nearing their highest levels in three weeks due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and a recovery in Chinese demand. Crude oil rose to $78.40 per barrel in the morning.

The Houthi rebels continued their attacks on maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where at least four other ships have been targeted by drone strikes and missiles since Friday. The Houthis stated that one of these ships, the cargo ship Robimar, flying the flag of Belize and registered in Britain, managed by Lebanon in the Gulf of Aden, is at risk of sinking, increasing the risks in their campaign to disrupt global shipping.

On another note, strong demand indicators in China also boosted morale. Tourism revenues in China increased by 47.3% on a yearly basis, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels during the National Lunar New Year holiday, which ended on Saturday. China also made a record cut in the benchmark price for property loans on Tuesday, attempting to support the besieged real estate market and economy. However, the supporting factors for prices did not fully compensate for demand concerns.On the other hand The International Energy Agency adjusted down its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 last week amid expectations that renewable energy will replace fossil fuel usage.

Reed More China’s Measures To Revive The Property Market.

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China’s Measures To Revive The Property Market https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/chinas-measures-to-revive-the-property-market-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/chinas-measures-to-revive-the-property-market-2#respond Tue, 20 Feb 2024 10:42:34 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28396 China's Measures To Revive The Property Market

China announced its largest-ever cut in mortgage interest rates on Tuesday, as authorities sought to support the struggling real estate market and the economy overall. The 25-basis-point reduction in the benchmark interest rate for five-year loans was the largest and much more than analysts had expected. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based […]

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China's Measures To Revive The Property Market

China announced its largest-ever cut in mortgage interest rates on Tuesday, as authorities sought to support the struggling real estate market and the economy overall. The 25-basis-point reduction in the benchmark interest rate for five-year loans was the largest and much more than analysts had expected. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year loan interest rate, while the five-year rate affects the pricing of mortgage loans. In a Reuters survey of 27 market watchers this week, 25 expected a cut in the five-year loan interest rate, predicting a reduction of five to 15 basis points.

The deeper-than-expected cut also suggests that Beijing is no longer concerned about the negative effects of lower lending rates on the currency or banks as it was last year. A central bank-backed newspaper stated on Tuesday that the cut in the mortgage interest rate would not have a negative impact on banks’ net interest margins. However, authorities are likely to remain cautious about yuan pressure due to the decline in local interest rates. Reuters sources said that state-owned major banks in China entered the market to sell dollars for yuan, attempting to halt the weakness.

Reed More Chinese Stocks Are Rebounding.

In the stock markets, while the real estate and banking sectors gained, the interest rate decision failed to boost investor confidence more broadly. Beijing intensified its efforts to rescue the struggling real estate sector, but the measures came intermittently, significantly affecting the sector that drives a quarter of the economy and the stock market. New home prices experienced their worst decline in nine years in 2023, while the stock market suffered after reaching its lowest levels in five years.

Government-backed media reported last week that government banks strengthened lending for housing projects under the “white list” mechanism aimed at injecting liquidity into the crisis-affected sector. Most analysts and investors await more measures to boost consumption and set a minimum for property prices. Their hopes rise after authorities changed the head of the market regulation authority before the Lunar New Year holiday. While the new benchmark for mortgage rates takes effect immediately, current mortgage holders will not benefit from any reduction in loan repayment installments until next year, as the mortgage rate is repriced annually.

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Bitcoin Reache 52000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/bitcoin-reache-52000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/bitcoin-reache-52000#respond Thu, 15 Feb 2024 13:23:02 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28330 Bitcoin Reache 52000

The prices of cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday in light of the continuous increase in the price of Bitcoin, which rose by another 4%. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $52,000, its highest level since December 2021. The surge has led to raising its market value to one trillion dollars. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also rose […]

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Bitcoin Reache 52000

The prices of cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday in light of the continuous increase in the price of Bitcoin, which rose by another 4%. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $52,000, its highest level since December 2021. The surge has led to raising its market value to one trillion dollars. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also rose by nearly 4% at the time of writing this report, trading at around $2,746.

Here is what you need to know about some reasons for the rise of Bitcoin:
1. The recent success of American exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in direct investment in Bitcoin. The funds have attracted more than $9 billion in net inflows since their launch a month ago.
2. Bitcoin benefits from the increasing interest in the so-called “halving” scheduled in April. Halving is an event in which the mining reward for each block is halved, reducing the supply amid growing demand and leading to upward momentum in prices. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and it is part of Bitcoin’s monetary policy designed to control the inflation of supply by reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created.

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Yellen’s Expectations For Progress In Combating Inflation. https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/yellens-expectations-for-progress-in-combating-inflation-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/yellens-expectations-for-progress-in-combating-inflation-2#respond Wed, 14 Feb 2024 11:41:55 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28266 Yellen's Expectations For Progress In Combating Inflation.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday that the data from the Consumer Price Index for January showed progress in combating inflation despite the rise in housing costs, which pushed the index higher than economists expected. Yellen focused on the annual inflation rate of the Consumer Price Index, which reached 3.1%, rather than […]

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Yellen's Expectations For Progress In Combating Inflation.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday that the data from the Consumer Price Index for January showed progress in combating inflation despite the rise in housing costs, which pushed the index higher than economists expected. Yellen focused on the annual inflation rate of the Consumer Price Index, which reached 3.1%, rather than the unexpected 0.3% increase on a monthly basis in January.

She stated, ‘The report showed that the Consumer Price Index declined to 3.1% in January. This is six percentage points lower than its peak in June 2022.’ ‘At the same time, the anticipated recession that many forecasters expected to see as a response to reducing inflation has not materialized.’

The reading of the hotter-than-expected consumer inflation helped push stocks on Wall Street lower, leading to a decline in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The data somewhat contradicted Yellen’s recent narrative that a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy is underway, with inflation being tamed and wage growth surpassing price increases driven by post-pandemic inflation.

Yellen said, ‘We have made significant progress in our battle to reduce inflation,’ noting that the main household expenses, such as gasoline, eggs, and airfare, have decreased. She added that the U.S. economy continues to grow with historically strong labor market strength.

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US Inflation Data Tops This Week https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/us-inflation-data-tops-this-week-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/us-inflation-data-tops-this-week-2#respond Mon, 12 Feb 2024 12:12:51 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28191 US Inflation Data Tops This Week

The dollar stabilized on Monday, as a holiday in most major Asian markets weakened trading at the beginning of the week. Despite the potential for a busy week, attention is turning to U.S. inflation data, seeking clues about when the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates. The change in expectations regarding when and how […]

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US Inflation Data Tops This Week

The dollar stabilized on Monday, as a holiday in most major Asian markets weakened trading at the beginning of the week. Despite the potential for a busy week, attention is turning to U.S. inflation data, seeking clues about when the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates. The change in expectations regarding when and how much central banks might reduce interest rates, given the decline in inflation, is a significant driver for currency markets currently.

Strong job data earlier this month led to the exclusion of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. Markets currently see a move in May as more likely. Analysts expect the U.S. core consumer price index to rise by 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, but it remains high at 3.8% on an annual basis. Continuing inflation decline and/or weakness in the job market would provide evidence of an impending interest rate cut.

On Wednesday, the reading of the UK Consumer Price Index will also influence opinions on when the Bank of England might start reducing interest rates. Markets are also closely monitoring the Japanese yen, which is highly sensitive to interest rates. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that authorities are closely monitoring currency market movements. It is worth noting that Japanese authorities intervened in late 2022 to support the yen, which had weakened to 151.94 against the dollar.

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Dollar Holds Steady After Fed Comments https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-holds-steady-after-fed-comments-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-holds-steady-after-fed-comments-2#respond Thu, 08 Feb 2024 12:40:54 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28158 Dollar Holds Steady After Fed Comments

The U.S. dollar traded within a narrow range on Thursday as traders absorbed less pessimistic statements from policymakers overnight and looked forward to new economic data from the United States. Throughout the day, several speakers from the Federal Reserve provided a set of reasons for not feeling an urgent need to start easing monetary policy […]

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Dollar Holds Steady After Fed Comments

The U.S. dollar traded within a narrow range on Thursday as traders absorbed less pessimistic statements from policymakers overnight and looked forward to new economic data from the United States. Throughout the day, several speakers from the Federal Reserve provided a set of reasons for not feeling an urgent need to start easing monetary policy in the United States soon. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins stated, ‘At present, policy remains in good shape as we carefully assess evolving data and expectations,’ adding that she believes it would be ‘appropriate to begin easing policy constraints later this year.’

The dollar edged somewhat lower after surpassing the 100-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday for the first time since late November, driven by an increase in U.S. job data on Friday. The dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. currency against six major currencies, has recently hovered around 104.00. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0780, holding above its lowest levels since November 14 at $1.0722 recorded on Tuesday. There was little notable change in the British pound at $1.2630.

The Japanese yen declined by 0.25% against the dollar at 148.50 after Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Oshida, stated that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates forcefully even after exiting negative interest rates. The yuan remained stable in external trading despite data showing the largest drop in consumer prices in China in over 14 years in January. The data revealed that the Consumer Price Index fell by 0.8% in January compared to the previous year but rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a 0.5% decline on an annual basis and a 0.4% increase on a monthly basis. The Producer Price Index fell by 2.5% on an annual basis in January, compared to expectations of a 2.6% decline in the Reuters survey. The currency received support as the Chinese stock market stabilized after the appointment of a new head of securities regulation, boosting morale despite disappointing data.

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Dollar Steadies Near 11- Week High https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-steadies-near-11-week-high-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-steadies-near-11-week-high-2#respond Tue, 06 Feb 2024 12:59:51 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28111 Dollar Steadies Near 11- Week High

The US dollar slightly rose on Tuesday, approaching its highest level in about three months, while the Australian dollar lost its strength after an earlier session increase. A series of strong US economic data and statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell led to the dismissal of speculations about early and sharp interest rate cuts, […]

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Dollar Steadies Near 11- Week High

The US dollar slightly rose on Tuesday, approaching its highest level in about three months, while the Australian dollar lost its strength after an earlier session increase. A series of strong US economic data and statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell led to the dismissal of speculations about early and sharp interest rate cuts, supporting the US currency. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other currencies, increased by 0.1% to 104.58, after touching 104.60 on Monday, its highest level since November 14.

The Euro decreased by 0.1% to $1.0732. German industrial orders unexpectedly jumped in December, while consumers in the Eurozone reduced their expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. The Australian dollar rose by 0.05% to $0.6492, moving away from the lowest level in two and a half months at $0.6469 touched on Monday. The New Zealand dollar also rose by 0.13% to $0.6063. Sentiments towards the Australian dollar were indirectly boosted due to the recovery in the Chinese stock market, where speculations increase about more state policy measures to stabilize it. The Australian dollar is typically strongly linked to Chinese stocks, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Chinese stocks recorded their largest daily gains since 2022, and the yuan rose, thanks to signals that authorities are strengthening their commitment to supporting declining markets.

The British pound recorded 1.2565 dollars in the latest transactions, up about 0.15% during the day but remained close to the lowest level in seven weeks recorded on Monday. The pound’s decline on Monday came despite some optimistic economic data, showing that the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom was likely much lower in late last year than previously thought, which could also lead to potential interest rate cuts in Britain. The Japanese yen was the strongest during the day at 148.71 against the dollar but remained not far from its lowest level in two months at 148.90. Real wages in Japan dropped for the twenty-first consecutive month, but at a slower pace, while household spending decreased for the tenth consecutive month, indicating that inflation surpassed wage recovery and continued to impact consumer spending.

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Chinese Stocks Are Rebounding https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/chinese-stocks-are-rebounding-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/chinese-stocks-are-rebounding-2#respond Tue, 06 Feb 2024 10:20:56 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28102 Chinese Stocks Are Rebounding

The struggling Chinese stocks saw their largest single-day gains in two years on Tuesday, and the yuan rose due to a series of signals indicating that authorities are strengthening their commitment to supporting declining markets. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 3.2%, marking its biggest daily gain since March 2022. Trading volumes were the highest […]

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Chinese Stocks Are Rebounding

The struggling Chinese stocks saw their largest single-day gains in two years on Tuesday, and the yuan rose due to a series of signals indicating that authorities are strengthening their commitment to supporting declining markets. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 3.2%, marking its biggest daily gain since March 2022. Trading volumes were the highest since May of last year. The Small-Cap Index recorded its highest increase since 2008.

This recovery comes after the country’s key indicators fell to their lowest levels in five years in recent sessions due to concerns about the sluggish economy and the lack of strong policy stimulus measures, similar to those introduced during past crises.

Most of the surge occurred when traders returned from the midday break in the markets after absorbing a slew of optimistic headlines. Bloomberg News reported that President Xi Jinping would discuss the struggling stock market with financial regulators. Authorities also announced additional restrictions on uncovered selling.

Reed More The Consequences Of The Embattled Property Sector in China.

Foreign net purchases amounted to 12.6 billion yuan (1.75 billion U.S. dollars), marking the largest single-day influx in the past year. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose by 4%, achieving its biggest gains in six months. The Hang Seng Technology Index also increased by 6.8%, its largest surge in over a year. Healthcare stocks rose by 8%, artificial intelligence stocks by 7.4%, and new energy stocks by 6.3%.

The yuan also rose, supported by the central bank’s stricter directives in recent days, reaching 7.1865 against the dollar, up from its lowest level in three weeks recorded on Monday. However, some analysts said that the apparent market recovery is mainly driven by state-backed investors known as the “national team” buying, rather than reflecting a sudden change in investor sentiment, with little evidence that policymakers will soon address structural economic issues such as economic weakness and contraction pressures.

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Dollar Notches Fresh Highs https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-notches-fresh-highs-2 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/dollar-notches-fresh-highs-2#respond Mon, 05 Feb 2024 11:28:30 +0000 https://blog.ldnglobalmarkets.com/?p=28064 Dollar Notches Fresh Highs

The dollar rose to its highest level in eight weeks against its major counterparts on Monday, as traders scaled back their bets on significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year in light of the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy. At the same time, the yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar […]

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Dollar Notches Fresh Highs

The dollar rose to its highest level in eight weeks against its major counterparts on Monday, as traders scaled back their bets on significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year in light of the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy. At the same time, the yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar fell to their lowest levels in two months in early Asian trading, while the euro reached its lowest level in over a month.

The repricing by the Federal Reserve came in the wake of Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. jobs report, which far exceeded market expectations. This bolstered Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement at the conclusion of last week’s central bank policy meeting that a rate cut in March is unlikely. In an interview with the “60 Minutes” news program aired on Sunday by CBS, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve could be “wise” in deciding when to cut the benchmark interest rate, given the strong economy allowing central bank officials time to build confidence.

Treasury bond yields also surged amid expectations of a long-term increase in U.S. interest rates, with the yield on the two-year rising by over four basis points to approximately 4.4159%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose by about three basis points to 4.0656%.

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