Bitcoin recorded a modest rise during today’s trading, supported by improving risk appetite as discussions around potential de escalation in the Middle East resurfaced. The largest cryptocurrency by market value is also heading to close March with slight gains, attempting to break a five month losing streak, trading near $69000 with an increase of about 2%.
On the geopolitical front, clashes between Iran and US allies continue without clear signs of resolution. However, reports indicate that US President Donald Trump is considering reducing direct military involvement while maintaining restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario, even if it suggests partial easing, keeps the risk of energy supply disruptions in play, which feeds into inflation expectations and keeps global monetary policy on a tight path, ultimately weighing on high risk assets, especially cryptocurrencies.
Trump stated that US forces are preparing to leave Iran within two to three weeks, emphasizing that the primary objective of limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities has been achieved. This comes as military operations continue on the ground, with reports of extensive strikes targeting missile production facilities.
He also noted that withdrawal does not require a formal agreement with Tehran, adding that rebuilding the damage inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure could take many years. At the same time, he linked the end of military operations to a potential decline in fuel prices, as current pressures have pushed average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical focal point. Trump suggested that securing the waterway should be the responsibility of countries that rely on it rather than the United States. On the Iranian side, signals emerged about a possible reopening of the strait under new conditions that may include imposing fees on passing vessels, highlighting its use as an economic pressure tool.
Another factor that could weigh on the sector in the long term has emerged, as Google researchers warned about rapid progress in quantum computing and its potential ability to break current encryption systems, particularly elliptic curve cryptography. If realized, this development could pose significant risks to the entire digital infrastructure, prompting the need to gradually shift toward quantum resistant cryptographic solutions.
From a performance perspective, Bitcoin moved within a sideways range throughout March despite briefly approaching $75000, before retreating and stabilizing within the same range that has dominated price action since the beginning of the year. Despite outperforming gold during the month which recorded weak performance, Bitcoin remains down about 22% year to date, reflecting continued pressure on the market.
Altcoins showed mixed performance, with Ethereum performing relatively better with gains near 7% and the potential to break a prolonged losing streak. Meanwhile, assets such as XRP and Solana faced mild selling pressure, while Cardano recorded sharper losses exceeding 14%. In the meme coin segment, weakness persisted with TRUMP and Dogecoin posting noticeable declines.
Despite this divergence, institutional interest remains present, with the total crypto market capitalization stabilizing around $2.3 trillion, alongside a return of positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This indicates that despite volatility, the market has not lost its underlying support.
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