Citi lowered its forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next twelve months pointing to slow progress in US legislation which reduces the chances of regulatory catalysts that were expected to support demand through exchange traded funds and boost institutional adoption
Progress on crypto market regulation in the United States remains stalled in the Senate with declining chances of passing the Clarity Act due to disagreements over stablecoin rules and limited time available for approval during 2026
Citi reduced its twelve month Bitcoin target to $112000 from $143000 and cut its Ethereum forecast to $3175 from $4304
The bank noted that regulatory catalysts remain a key driver for further adoption and inflows but the window for passing legislation in the United States this year is gradually narrowing
In a recession scenario Bitcoin could fall to $58000 and Ethereum to $1198 while in a bullish scenario driven by stronger end user demand Bitcoin could reach $165000 and Ethereum $4488
Citi highlighted that Ethereum remains more sensitive to user activity indicators which have shown recent weakness although trends in stablecoins and asset tokenization could support growing interest and usage
The chances of passing crypto legislation could decline further if Democrats gain additional seats in Congress during the midterm elections given internal divisions over adjusting federal rules to accommodate digital assets as passing the bill requires support from at least seven Democratic senators
Some lawmakers are pushing to include provisions preventing elected officials from profiting from crypto projects which could reduce the likelihood of President Donald Trump signing the bill
Citi expects Bitcoin to move within a range while awaiting legislative developments with $70000 seen as a key level reflecting pre-US election pricing amid calls for stricter anti money laundering rules in proposed legislation
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