Oil prices moved within a narrow range in early Asian trading at the start of the week, following a roughly 3% decline over the past few days. January Brent crude stabilized near $62.45 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell to $57.91. This relative calm reflects a wait and see attitude among traders after prices hit their lowest levels in a month at the end of last week.
Markets are closely watching developments surrounding the revised peace framework between the United States and Ukraine. The updated proposal came after objections from Kyiv and its allies, yet it still contains sensitive points such as territorial concessions, military capacity limits, and the need for explicit security guarantees. Even without a final agreement, the prospect of a potential settlement weighs on prices as investors anticipate that part of Russia’s oil supply may return to the market if sanctions are eased.
At the same time, U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have come into effect, reshaping trade flows and restricting international purchasing and financing tied to Russian crude exports. These measures may provide short-term price support by tightening available supply, but the market recognizes that any progress in peace negotiations increases the likelihood of sanctions being eased or lifted, gradually restoring supply and maintaining a fragile balance between demand and output.
Uncertainty over the direction of U.S. interest rates has also limited investor appetite for commodities. However, expectations of a rate cut next month have intensified following remarks by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams hinting at a near-term policy adjustment. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar recorded its strongest weekly performance in six weeks, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and adding short-term downward pressure.
Given the conflicting influence of peace prospects versus sanctions, traders remain cautious and reluctant to form strong directional positions. A breakout above the $64–$65 range in Brent could signal a technical rebound, while a drop below the $61–$60 area would reinforce the bearish outlook and pave the way for deeper lows in the short term. Stay informed about global markets through our previous analyses. and Now, you can also benefit from LDN company services via the LDN Global Markets trading platform.
