The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a higher record level than previously projected, despite warning that an oversupply in the market will likely weigh on prices in the coming months.
The EIA now forecasts average U.S. oil output at 13.53 million barrels per day this year, up from its earlier estimate of 13.44 million barrels per day. Last year’s average stood at 13.23 million barrels per day, marking the previous all-time high.
This anticipated increase in U.S. production comes despite growing concerns about a market surplus. The EIA indicated that crude inventories are likely to rise next year, putting additional pressure on prices in the near term.
For 2026, the agency expects a slight decline of 0.1% in U.S. oil production to 13.51 million barrels per day, compared with earlier projections that suggested a decrease of more than 1%.
The EIA estimates that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will average $65 per barrel this year about 15% lower than last year’s average while Brent crude is expected to average around $68.64 per barrel, also down by roughly 15%.
The revised outlook reflects stronger-than-expected production in July, as well as upgraded estimates for output from the U.S. Gulf Coast, where some projects are progressing faster than initially projected. Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is now expected to average 1.89 million barrels per day this year, compared with previous estimates of 1.84 million barrels per day.
The agency also raised its forecast for global oil production, citing stronger output growth among non-OPEC countries this year and next. In contrast, it largely maintained its expectations for OPEC+ output, despite announcements by some member states regarding production increases.
The EIA noted that the recent production gains linked to OPEC+ target adjustments will likely fade over time, as some members approach their operational capacity limits, while others aim to prevent excessive inventory build-up to avoid further downward pressure on prices.
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