U.S. stock futures started the week cautiously, with Dow Jones contracts down 0.2%, S&P 500 futures slipping 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures remained relatively stable. This performance reflects investors’ cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, both of which may shape the outlook for monetary policy in the coming period.
The Fed’s July minutes, set for release on Wednesday, are under close watch, especially after the rare dissent within the committee in favor of cutting interest rates to support the labor market. Recent economic data showed a clear slowdown in employment contrasted by relative strength in retail sales, painting a mixed picture of a weakening labor market alongside lingering inflationary pressures.
Markets are now pricing in a high probability of around 85% for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. This makes Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday a decisive event; a hawkish tone could temper expectations, while any dovish tilt would put further pressure on the dollar and boost risk appetite.
On the geopolitical front, attention turns to Washington, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in an attempt to outline a potential settlement. However, concerns are mounting that Washington may push Kyiv toward a deal seen as more favorable to Moscow, especially after last week’s Trump-Putin meeting failed to yield meaningful progress. Any breakthrough or setback on this front will have direct repercussions on global risk sentiment.
In commodities, gold rebounded from a more than two-week low, rising 0.6% to $3,355 per ounce. The move was fueled by renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. Sustaining this momentum will depend directly on Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole as well as the political outcomes related to the war in Ukraine.
As for currencies, the U.S. dollar opened the week slightly higher at 97.89 (+0.2%) after losses last week. The euro fell to 1.1671 but remained within a tight range ahead of European data releases and the Washington meeting, with potential to target 1.1830 should Powell strike a dovish tone. Meanwhile, the British pound eased slightly to 1.3540 after strong gains last week but remains supported by the Bank of England’s more hawkish stance compared to the Fed, leaving room to advance toward 1.3680–1.3700 if the 1.3600 level is breached.
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