Oil prices opened the week’s trading with sharp gains, driven by direct military escalation targeting strategic facilities inside Iran. The United States’ involvement in the operation heightened concerns over supply stability from the region, which was immediately reflected in the market. Brent crude surged to $81.40 its highest level since January before retreating below $78 following a wave of profit taking.
Investors have already begun pricing in potential disruption scenarios in global energy supply, amid increasing speculation that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz through which about one-fifth of global oil exports pass could be affected. Although there are some alternative pipeline routes, they are insufficient to cover the full volume at risk, making the market more vulnerable to logistical bottlenecks that could push prices into the $100–$120 range if tensions persist.
According to Goldman Sachs, a 50% drop in oil flows through the Strait for one month, followed by an extended 10% reduction over the next 11 months, could temporarily push Brent to $110 per barrel, with prices averaging around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025. In an alternative scenario, a decline of 1.75 million barrels per day in Iranian exports could drive Brent to a short-term peak of $90, before gradually falling to the $60–$80 range in 2026, depending on recovery pace and production adjustments.
European natural gas markets have also been directly impacted, with the TTF benchmark moving toward €74 per megawatt hour a level seen as critical for industrial demand. In contrast, U.S. gas markets remain more insulated, thanks to robust export capacity and limited dependence on LNG imports, reducing domestic exposure to global shocks.
Amid these accelerating developments, predictive markets such as Polymarket are reflecting a shift in investor sentiment, with the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 rising to 52%. This political escalation is forcing the market to actively reassess positioning, especially after media reports indicated preliminary approval from the Iranian parliament, pending final authorization by the Supreme National Security Council.
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