Goldman Sachs stated in a note released on Sunday that the OPEC+ alliance, comprising eight countries, is expected to increase oil production by 0.41 million barrels per day in August.
The bank noted that the fundamental factors in the oil market remain solid, with strong global economic activity data and seasonal support during the summer contributing to increased demand for oil. As a result, the anticipated slowdown in demand is unlikely to prevent a production hike during the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 6.
It is worth noting that OPEC+ recently upheld its decision to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day for July, in an effort to regain market share and manage overproduction by some member countries. This decision reflects the ongoing tightening of the oil market, the resilience of the global economy, and a longer-term trend toward stabilizing production and expanding spare capacity, which supports internal group cohesion and limits the growth of U.S. shale oil output.
Following OPEC+’s announcement of increased output for July, oil prices rose by more than a dollar per barrel during Asian trading on Monday, in line with market expectations. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain stable production levels starting in September, as global economic growth slows in the third quarter and major non-OPEC oil production projects come online.
The bank maintained its cautious outlook for oil prices, projecting that Brent crude will average $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $56 per barrel during the remainder of 2025. In 2026, prices are forecast to decline to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively.
These projections reflect a rise in supply outside U.S. shale oil, leading to a surplus of up to 1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Goldman Sachs also cited the International Energy Agency’s revised demand data for Africa, stronger-than-expected European demand, and reduced expectations for electric vehicle adoption in Western markets as key factors influencing demand forecasts.
Overall, Goldman Sachs believes that the balance between increasing supply and stable demand will help maintain relative stability in the oil market in the near term.
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