Oil prices continue their downward trend under pressure from multiple factors, primarily OPEC+’s decision to increase production starting in April. This move has raised concerns about a potential oversupply, especially amid a global economic slowdown. At the same time, the United States has imposed new tariffs on energy imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, escalating trade tensions and adding further uncertainty to global oil demand. These factors have triggered strong selling pressure in the market, leading Brent crude to decline to $71.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $67.98 per barrel.
Geopolitical developments have played a crucial role in shaping oil price movements. The Trump administration’s decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine has been interpreted as a potential step toward de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and possibly easing sanctions on Russian energy exports. Reports suggesting that the White House is considering relaxing restrictions on Moscow have fueled expectations that some Russian oil supplies could return to the market, further increasing global supply.
From an economic perspective, the U.S. tariffs have raised concerns about weakening oil demand. The 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect, along with an increase in Chinese import duties from 10% to 20%. In response, China imposed retaliatory measures, raising taxes on American agricultural and food products while restricting exports and investments for U.S. companies. This trade war escalation threatens global economic activity and may further dampen oil demand forecasts in the coming months.
Despite these mounting pressures, analysts at Goldman Sachs project Brent crude to average $78 per barrel in 2025, before declining to $73 per barrel in 2026. Meanwhile, WTI crude is expected to average $74 per barrel in 2025 and $68 per barrel in 2026. With the escalation of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, concerns are growing over its negative impact on economic activity and energy consumption. Additionally, the bank warned that an 18-month increase in OPEC+ production could push Brent crude down to a $60-$65 per barrel range by late 2026, further intensifying downward pressure on prices.
